AUM Poll: Tommy Tuberville leads Doug Jones by 12 points in closing weeks of Alabama Senate race

A newly released AUM Poll from Auburn University at Montgomery’s Department of Political Science and Public Administration shows Republican U.S. Senate nominee Tommy Tuberville leading incumbent Democratic Sen. Doug Jones by nearly 12 percentage points heading into the November 3 general election.

According to poll results, approximately 54 percent of Alabamians intend to vote for Tuberville, a former Auburn University head football coach, with 42 percent planning to vote for Jones in the upcoming Alabama Senate race. Approximately 4 percent of voters plan to write in another candidate’s name at the polls this November.

“Poll results show that Tuberville enjoys his widest levels of support among voters who are white, older, have less education, and belong to an evangelical congregation,” said David Hughes, an assistant professor of political science and director of AUM Poll. “These trends typify voting today.”

“Modern Republican politics continues to emphasize much of the culture war issues like same-sex marriage, law and order, and illegal immigration that dominated American politics over the past 20-30 years.”

Hughes said younger voters, especially those of color, who are not attached to conservative religious groups, or those who have attained a higher level of education, are not as likely to respond to such political messages.

“This will be a problem for Republicans nationwide as the share of older, white, evangelical voters are generationally replaced by Millennial and Gen-Z voters who are culturally much more diverse,” he said. “Until that happens, however, Democrats like Doug Jones will continue to struggle in places like Alabama.”

Despite Jones’ trailing performance, Hughes said that the senator appears to be outperforming Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden by approximately five percentage points. According to AUM Poll results, approximately 57 percent of Alabama voters intend to vote for Trump, 37 percent plan to vote for Biden, and six percent plan to write-in another candidate’s name.

“Jones’ advantage over Biden is likely due to his moderate, bi-partisan record in the Senate,” he said. “He has really built a reputation as someone who can reach across the aisle to get important work done. That said, on many critical votes such as whether to convict President Trump in his impeachment trial, Jones has been a reliable Democratic ally, which likely isn’t helping his reelection efforts.”

The AUM Poll was conducted between September 30 and October 3, 2020. It consisted of 1,072 registered Alabama voters and has a margin of error of 4.0 points. Respondents were recruited through an online platform. Responses were then weighted according to Alabama demographics such as age, education, income, race, and gender. View the poll’s Topline Results.